Today the 澳博官方网站app 研究所 released data showing that homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) significantly increased their spending both before and after anticipated mortgage payment decreases, 尽管他们的房屋价值大幅下跌. 由于美联储的低利率政策, the mortgage rates of ARMs that reset between 2010 and 2012 dropped substantially, 导致ARM借款人的抵押贷款支付减少. These homeowners increased their credit card spending by 9 percent in the year before the anticipated drop in their mortgage payments and by 15 percent in the year after reset, despite a 25 percent drop in their home values over the 5 years before reset.

Homeowners used the savings from lower ARM payments to make more purchases across all spending categories. 值得注意的是, spending on home improvements increased the most in both the pre-reset and post-reset periods, 分别增长了20%和26%. Homeowners increased their investment in their homes despite the fact that home values had dropped by 25 percent since origination.

The Consumer 支出 Response to Mortgage Resets: Microdata on Monetary Policy  报告使用4的去识别数据构建,321 homeowners who had 30-year 5/1 ARMs that reset between April 2010 and December 2012 and a credit card through 追逐. The report includes an analysis of changes in credit card spending and revolving balance in the two-year period surrounding ARM reset. 请注意，样本的收入中位数约为120美元,000, which is considerably higher than the Survey of Consumer Finances median before-tax family income for homeowners in the time period analyzed.

“These data underscore the impact of easy monetary policy on the spending of ARM borrowers despite declining home values, and highlight a segment of borrowers that should be carefully watched as rates begin to go back up,” Diana Farrell，澳博官方网站app研究所总裁兼首席执行官. “随着住房政策改革的审议, consideration should also be given to how those policies impact which type of mortgage borrowers choose and the influence those choices have on the ability of monetary policy to impact personal consumption.”

以下是这份新报告的主要发现.

• Finding One: 44 percent of the homeowners in the sample experienced a large drop in their hybrid ARM payment at reset, 哪些平均占他们月收入的5%以上.
  • The 44 percent of homeowners in the sample that had a stable amortization schedule – one which was consistent before and after the mortgage rate reset – realized an average of $747 in monthly savings upon reset; these savings were equivalent to over 5 percent of their monthly income.
  • 从发起到重置的五年间, 这一群体的房价中位数下降了近84美元,000 (25%), 这使得贷款价值比(LTV)大幅上升.
• Finding Two: Homeowners increased their spending by 9 percent in advance of the anticipated drop in their mortgage payments and by 15 percent after reset, 尽管住房财富大幅缩水.
  • 信用卡平均消费相对于基线增长了9%, 或者每月289美元, in the year preceding the ARM reset; in the year after reset, 平均支出相对于基线增长了15%, 或者每月488美元.
  • Homeowners increased their spending despite the fact that their home values had depreciated by nearly $84,000(25%)自创办以来.
• Finding Three: Homeowners used credit card borrowing to finance 21 percent of their pre-reset anticipatory spending increase, 重置后，他们的循环余额进一步增加. 整整两年的时间, their total spending increases exceeded their mortgage-related savings by 4 percent.
  • Average credit card revolving balance increased by $741 over the 12 month pre-reset period, suggesting that these homeowners used their credit card to finance 21 percent of their pre-reset spending increase and funded the remaining 79 percent out of savings.
• Finding Four: Finding Four: Homeowners used the savings from lower hybrid ARM payments to make more purchases across all spending categories, 尤其是住房改善和医疗保健.
  • 支出 on home improvements increased the most in both the pre-reset and post-reset periods, 分别增长了20%和26%; homeowners increased their investment in their homes despite the 25 percent decline in their home values.
  • 支出 on healthcare increased 16 percent relative to the baseline in the post-reset period, suggesting that homeowners may have postponed attending to their health until after they received a boost in income.